The National Hurricane Center upped its odds that a system in the Atlantic Ocean could form into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm.
In its 9 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said the low pressure area was located about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, but it was a large and complex system with a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the next few days,” forecasters said.
As it moves north by Thursday night or Friday, though, the system will hit cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough that will limit any sort of tropical transition, forecasters said.
The NHC gives the system a 50% chance to form in the next two to five days.
The storm is no threat to Florida.
If it were to form into a tropical or subtropical storm, it would take the name Owen. A subtropical storm gets its energy mostly from a shift in pressure so its winds are stronger farther away from its center whereas a tropical system gets its energy mostly from the warm water and winds are stronger at the core.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but storms have formed in every month of the year, so any system that forms before Dec. 31 would pull from the 2022 list of hurricane names.
The last named storm was Hurricane Nicole that struck Florida in mid-November. The state was already reeling from Hurricane Ian that struck in August.
The NHC classified the 2022 season as above average with 16 named systems as well as one other potential tropical cyclone that never gained depression status. This follows 2020′s record year of 30 names storms and 2021′s 21 named storm.